The Big Four Are Losing International Students. Here's Who's Winning.
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Show notes
New study visas issued by the US, UK, Canada and Australia fell by around 38% in two years, while Germany, South Korea and Japan grow. I explain what the winners say that we don't.
- State the full cost plainly, in one place and in local currency.
- Make life after graduation concrete, and market the welcome through current students.
- Work with your city and country, and diversify markets using evidence, not habit.
Full transcript
Hello, and welcome to Marketing Greats in Higher Education. I'm Jonathan Sabarre, your host, and this is where we explore the ideas shaping how universities are seen, chosen and trusted around the world. Everything I share on this show is my own personal view.
For a generation, the answer to "where should I study abroad?" was almost automatic: the US, the UK, Canada or Australia. That's no longer true. An analysis by The PIE News found that new study visas issued by the Big Four fell by around thirty-eight per cent between 2023 and 2025. And today, France and Germany each welcome more new international students than Canada does. That's a seismic shift!
The pressure hasn't eased. Home Office figures show UK study visa applications this August were the lowest for that month since the series began, down seventeen per cent on a year earlier. In the US, NAFSA warns there could be as many as a hundred and eleven thousand fewer international students this year. And Australian ministers report new enrolments down eight per cent. Taken together, that's a real change in where ambitious students believe they're welcome, and it's happening fast.
But students haven't stopped travelling. They're choosing differently. Germany now hosts around four hundred and twenty-six thousand international students, including a record intake this year. Japan passed four hundred thousand for the first time, eight years ahead of its target. And South Korea hit its goal of three hundred thousand a year early. Both Asian destinations grew by more than twenty per cent in a single year.
Policy explains a lot of this. Caps, visa changes and political rhetoric in the traditional destinations have made headlines in exactly the markets that matter most. But policy isn't the whole story. When you look at how the growing destinations present themselves, three messages keep appearing: here's what it costs, here's what you can do after you graduate, and you're wanted here. A family in Lagos or Hanoi doesn't need to understand visa policy to notice the difference.
Germany talks about low or no tuition and a route into a labour market that needs skills. South Korea set a public goal of welcoming three hundred thousand students, and then delivered it. None of that is complicated. It's clear, consistent and backed by policy, and it answers the questions families are actually asking at the kitchen table.
So what would I ask every marketing director to do? First, state the full cost plainly: tuition, living costs and visa fees, in one place and in local currency. If you're worth the price, show why. If you hide it, a competitor will happily explain it for you. Second, make life after graduation concrete, with post-study work rights, employer links and real graduate stories from the student's own country.
Third, market the welcome. Safety, community and support on arrival matter enormously to families, and they should hear it from current international students, not just from you. Fourth, work with your city and country. Universities can't change national policy, but they can tell a more welcoming story together with their region and their sector bodies.
And fifth, diversify with evidence. Use search and enquiry data, not habit, to decide where to invest next. The fastest-growing markets this year may not be the ones on last year's plan. The traditional destinations still have extraordinary strengths, from world-class universities to degrees employers recognise everywhere. But those strengths alone are no longer enough.
International students haven't stopped travelling. They've started comparing, and the winners are making that comparison easy. The universities that compete on clarity and welcome, rather than heritage alone, will be the ones still growing when the policy cycle turns. So make your next campaign the clearest one in your market!
Thank you for spending this time with me. If this episode sparked something for you, hit subscribe, so you never miss the next one. And our full season, with guests from leading universities around the world, is coming very soon. Head to Jonathan Sabarre dot com and sign up, so you're the first to know when it launches. Until next time, keep building something great.