The Big Four lost 38% of new study visas in two years. The winners are telling a different story.

Listen or watch · Episode 20 · 4:18The Big Four Are Losing International Students. Here's Who's Winning.

For a generation, the answer to “where should I study abroad?” was almost automatic: the US, the UK, Canada or Australia. That’s no longer true. An analysis by The PIE News found that new study visas issued by the Big Four fell by around 38% between 2023 and 2025. Canada issued 399,405 fewer in 2025 than in 2023, and France and Germany each now welcome more new international students than Canada does.

The pressure hasn’t eased. Home Office data shows UK sponsored study visa applications in August 2026 were the lowest for that month since the series began in 2022, down 17% on a year earlier. In the US, NAFSA warns there could be as many as 111,000 fewer international students this academic year. Australian ministers report 2026 commencements down 8% on 2025.

Students are still moving, just elsewhere

Germany now hosts around 426,200 international students, including a record 130,000 starting their studies this year. Japan passed 400,000 for the first time in 2025, eight years ahead of its 2033 target. South Korea reached 307,464 this spring, hitting its Study Korea 300K goal a year early. Both Asian destinations grew by more than 21% in a single year.

Policy explains a lot of this. Caps, visa changes and political rhetoric in the traditional destinations have made headlines in exactly the markets that matter most. But policy isn’t the whole story, because the winners are also communicating differently.

International students haven’t stopped travelling. They’ve started comparing, and the winners are making the comparison easy.

What the winners are saying

Look at how the growing destinations present themselves and three messages keep appearing: here’s what it costs, here’s what you can do after you graduate, and you’re wanted here. Germany talks about low or no tuition and a route into a labour market that needs skills. South Korea set a public goal of welcoming 300,000 students and then delivered it.

None of that is complicated. It’s clear, consistent and backed by national policy, and it answers the questions families are actually asking.

What I’d ask every marketing director to do

State the full cost plainly. Tuition, living costs, visa fees and, in England from 2028, the cost of the international student levy, in one place and in local currency. If you’re worth the price, show why. If you hide it, a competitor will happily explain it for you.

Make life after graduation concrete. Post-study work rights, employer links and real graduate stories from the student’s own country carry more weight than any ranking badge.

Market the welcome. Safety, community, support on arrival and a friendly first week matter enormously to families. Make sure prospective students hear it from current international students, not just from you.

Work with your city and country. Universities can’t change national policy, but they can work with their city, region and sector bodies to tell a more welcoming story together.

Diversify with evidence. Use search and enquiry data, not habit, to decide where to invest next. The fastest-growing markets this year may not be the ones on last year’s plan.

The opportunity

The traditional destinations still have extraordinary strengths: world-class universities, global networks and degrees employers recognise everywhere. But the days when that was enough are over. The institutions that compete on clarity and welcome, rather than heritage alone, will be the ones still growing when the policy cycle turns.

It’s a theme I’ll be exploring with international leaders on Season 2 of the podcast, because some of the smartest thinking in recruitment is now coming from places we’ve rarely looked to for lessons.

Jonathan Sabarre FCIM MBA is Principal Consultant at QS Quacquarelli Symonds, a keynote speaker and host of Marketing Greats in Higher Education. Get the weekly email or invite him to speak.